Space Tourism: For Those Who Believe

Myths, Legends, and Real Prospects of One of the Most Discussed and Misunderstood Developments in the New Approach to Space

BY EMILIO COZZI

“Space tourism” is a term that’s easily thrown around. The truth is that this definition is misleading; it would be more accurate to talk about the commercial exploitation of space. Moreover, it’s not well-regarded, neither among professionals nor among those who have had the fortune and means to venture into orbit for a few days or just minutes above a certain altitude. This was the case, for example, with American billionaire Jared Isaacman and his crew of novices, who flew into orbit in September 2021 aboard the Inspiration4 mission, lucky winners of a space lottery.

In such cases, these extraterrestrial pilgrims are preferably called “private astronauts,” a term that retains a certain solemnity and detaches from an assumed whim related to economic status or the beautiful, random occurrences of life. These occurrences are set to multiply over time, as the opportunities to fly beyond the sky and related businesses will also increase. Everything suggests a market soon worth several billion dollars, as recently confirmed at Sutus, the global summit dedicated to space and underwater tourism. Organized by Les Roches, it fittingly gathered in Marbella personalities from NASA, the European Space Agency, foundations, and representatives of companies, from Airbus to SpaceX.

To avoid misunderstandings, it is therefore appropriate to make some distinctions, starting with the definition of “space.” In summary, it is the realm that extends beyond the Earth’s atmosphere. Its boundary is arbitrary: it’s the “Kármán line,” conventionally placed at an altitude of one hundred kilometers. Those who cross it can boast the title, at least formally, of astronaut. This applies to professionals, who in the last twenty years have crossed it for extended periods, from weeks to months, but also to “ordinary” people, space guests for shorter stays. To go into space, in fact, it is not necessary to enter into orbit around the Earth; a suborbital “touch and go” is more than sufficient. It is here that things begin to get complicated, but also interesting, as realms hybridize and possibilities multiply.

From Tito to Jared: The First Space Tourists

The first space tourists were wealthy (the first being Dennis Tito), paying tens of millions of dollars for a ticket to spend a few days in orbit aboard the International Space Station (ISS). This was in the early 2000s, a time when space transport was exclusively the domain of national agencies from the United States (NASA) and Russia (Roscosmos). Flying was expensive, very expensive. The emergence of commercial companies, from the mid-2010s of this century, has revolutionized the playing field. Access to space has become more affordable: costs have dropped from over $54,000 per kilo with the Space Shuttle to $2,500 with SpaceX. Launches have multiplied, but so has the diversity of offerings.

SpaceX was the first (and so far only) private company to provide access to orbit on its own vessels. It has contracts with NASA for transporting astronauts to the ISS and, at the same time, as a for-profit entity, has sought other clients. It has opened the orbital “route” to those willing to pay enough for a short cruise beyond the Kármán line. In September 2021, just a year and four months after the first flight of a Crew Dragon (SpaceX’s human transport spacecraft), Inspiration4, a mission of four private astronauts including pilot and commander Jared Isaacman, a billionaire entrepreneur ready to pay the ticket for all his companions, launched from Cape Canaveral. They stayed aboard the Dragon for a few days, orbiting Earth.

In 2023, two private missions, again with SpaceX but organized by the space “travel agency” Axiom, brought another six people (plus two commanders from Axiom itself) for a period, respectively, of seventeen days for the first and ten for the second, aboard the ISS. At a price of 55 million dollars per person. The next to fly, perhaps in January 2024, will be Ax-3, which will have four astronauts of various professional titles: aboard will be former NASA and mission commander Michael López-Alegría, now with Axiom, Swedish Marcus Wandt, selected as a reserve for the ESA astronaut corps, Turkish Alper Gezeravci, and Italian Walter Villadei, colonel of the Italian Air Force with a ticket paid by the Armed Force. From a commercial standpoint, Ax-3 will be a private trip purchased by individual states and not by the space agencies of the respective countries (there is no official information about the cost of the tickets, but rumors indicate 55 million dollars per seat). This is a significant paradigm shift and only the beginning.

I Don’t Just Want the Moon
Before long, it will be possible to witness – in the sense that the broadcast rights may be sold to a broadcaster, just as happened with Netflix for Inspiration4 – the launch of the first lunar orbit cruise.

“dearMoon” is the journey that Japanese magnate Yūsaku Maezawa has purchased for himself and eight artists (reportedly costing $200 million), who will take off with him for a trip around our natural satellite. Their departure is contingent on the readiness of Starship, the spacecraft that SpaceX is developing for lunar landing (though not planned for dearMoon). While aspiring to a trip “from Earth to the Moon,” or even just a suborbital hop, remains the privilege of a very narrow niche of the wealthy, “low-cost” solutions – if the term may be boldly used – are flourishing in all markets.

To go to space, you just need to go high, not necessarily stay there. Suborbital flights are brief, reach space (or nearly so), and return within a few minutes. Parallel to SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic have explored ways to send paying clients beyond the sky at a fraction of the cost of an orbital mission. Virgin Galactic’s spaceplane takes off by detaching from under the wing of a “mother ship” and reaches about 80 kilometers in altitude, turns off its engines, and for a few minutes, allows its passengers to unbuckle and experience the exhilarating sensation of weightlessness. In June 2023, it completed its first commercial flight: the “paying” passengers were Walter Villadei and Angelo Landolfi of the Air Force, plus Pantaleone Carlucci of the CNR. Not exactly tourists, they were flying with various experiments to conduct in a short time. This does not preclude that the mission’s goal might also be simply for leisure. It costs $450,000 to enjoy an hour and a half experience from takeoff to landing.

Blue Origin, the space company of another space billionaire, Jeff Bezos, uses a different approach: its jumps over 100 kilometers are achieved with a New Shepard rocket launching vertically. At the peak of the ascent, the crew capsule separates and allows its occupants to float for about three minutes before having to sit down for the descent secured by parachutes. The price, in this case, is uncertain: although tens of millions were mentioned for the inaugural flight, it is said that today a million dollars might suffice to cross the Kármán line.

London-Sydney in Two and a Half Hours
The potential and misunderstandings of space tourism are revealed by extending its definition beyond the simple concept of space as a luxurious and exclusive destination. Consider, for example, how the use of technologies necessary for an extra-atmospheric jaunt promises to reconfigure transportation: Virgin Galactic’s spaceplane can cover the distance between London and Sydney in two hours, a journey that takes more than twenty hours on a commercial airliner. The same could be done by Starship (which attempted something similar on its inaugural flight, but ended up just a few miles off the Texas coast), which, moreover, can boast plenty of onboard space for cargo and crew.

A 2021 UBS report estimates a steep growth for a market of transporting people and goods whose routes cross space. The increase would go from the current values (presumably a few hundred million dollars, if Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson’s declarations are true) to billions by 2030: three to four billion could be the value of space tourism in the strict sense, space for the sake of space. However, it is logical that the technologies used to surpass 100 kilometers in altitude lead to a revolution (small or large, the market will tell) in so-called “point to point” (ptp) transport on Earth. According to UBS, in this case, the value could reach 20 billion dollars, because suborbital ptp would compete with airlines on the longest routes, those of sixteen hours or more, to get from one side of the globe to the other.

This topic is also addressed in the analysis by Northern Sky Research (NSR), which, however, is more cautious in its medium-term projections. The uncertainties first of all concern the risks of this type of transport. A pilot lost his life during one of Virgin’s tests, and then, during the flight with Richard Branson, an anomaly in the trajectory of the spaceplane triggered an FAA investigation and grounded the system for nearly two years.

Another failed launch, this time by Blue Origin, forced a halt for Bezos’s company as well. Thus, according to NSR, space tourism revenues could break the billion-dollar ceiling per year only by 2032. We are still at the beginning, and statistics on a handful of launches, the only ones carried out so far, risk being tainted by failures that could undermine confidence in the sector. To date, the only company able to earn blind trust remains SpaceX. But, as written here, for different reasons.

In fact, Falcon 9 is the launcher that performs the most launches overall: 61 in 2022 alone, without any failures. However, these successes are always and only attributable to the orbital segment of space tourism, thus benefiting and within reach of the already mentioned narrow circle of privileged individuals.

Yet the sector believes in it. Companies from the West and East are committed. Branson, who has every interest in promoting his own agenda, swears there would be a market for at least twenty companies specialized in space tourism: “The more space vehicles we build, the more we can lower the price and the more we can meet demand, and this will happen in the coming years.” According to Branson, there could be millions of potential customers.

Less optimistically but more realistically, the theoretical applicability of rocket technology for terrestrial flights will be demonstrated by the end of the 2030s, not before. By theoretical applicability, it means a basic safety certification, which can at least demonstrate whether suborbital launches guarantee the same level of safety as commercial flights (currently, they do not). The feasibility, the economic return of suborbital transport, logistics (rockets cannot take off from locations near cities), as well as energy consumption, carbon emission neutrality, health, and safety of pilots are aspects that still await to be addressed and find a direction.

Laboratory and Orbital Hotel: The Private Stations
Of the Western space outposts, only one remains, and it is now dated: the ISS. However, there are several projects to build new, private ones. The first commercial station is that of Axiom Space, whose first module is already taking shape at the Thales Alenia Space facilities in Turin. Axiom was the first company to exploit and attack the potential of a market still only imagined, that of space travel. Initially, Axiom environments will be an expansion of the ISS, then they will detach to become an autonomous outpost. For research, science, and technology. But also for tourists.

Other projects include those of industry giants like Boeing, in collaboration with Blue Origin (the Orbital Reef station), and Nanoracks, Voyager Space, Airbus Defence and Space, and Lockheed Martin (for Star Lab), a group recently joined by Northrop Grumman, which has abandoned its own orbiting infrastructure. Specifically for Star Lab, following a memorandum of understanding signed a few days ago with Airbus and Voyager Space, the European Space Agency could develop its activities following the decommissioning of the ISS, currently planned for 2030.

Funded by NASA, which will focus on the exploration of the Moon and Mars and in a second phase will purchase services and time aboard, the projects for the new private outposts promise that the business of Earth orbit will grow. Towards space tourism and beyond.