- January 4, 2024
- Posted by: admin
- Category: Emilio Cozzi
Elon Musk’s company achieved nearly two launches per week, and despite the majority being Starlink missions, its portfolio of orders from third-party clients surpasses that of its competitors. The key strengths lie in reliability and cost, and with Starship, the gap is on the verge of becoming an abyss.
BY EMILIO COZZI
The count stopped just two launches short of reaching triple digits: 98. It is worth noting that out of the 98 launches, 63 were dedicated to SpaceX’s in-house missions. It is believed that at SpaceX’s headquarters in Hawthorne, California, missing the psychological threshold won’t weigh heavily. Nevertheless, 2023 was a record year for space launches, and if the trend continues, it could be the first of many.
The year concluded with 96 successful launches and two considered, at least statistically, failures: the initial orbital tests of Starship. It would be more accurate to view those tests as spectacular diversions – considering it’s a new launch system based on the most powerful rocket ever built and a spacecraft designed for lunar and eventually Martian exploration – breaking the routine of perfect launches followed by the recovery of the first stage (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy).
In 2022, there were 61 launches, averaging more than one every six days. In the just-passed year, there were almost two per week. The grand finale occurred in the last days of December: on the 29th, a Falcon Heavy launched the X-37B spaceplane for the US Space Force, followed by another Falcon 9, which, within three hours, delivered 23 Starlink satellites into orbit. Needless to say, each payload reached its orbit without any issues.
Starlink and the Market
It is noteworthy that out of the 98 launches, 63 were “in-house missions”: SpaceX launched satellites for its Starlink constellation 63 times. Detractors often use this data to downplay the company’s significance, even geopolitically. However, SpaceX, through intense launch activity and mass production, has not only established dominance but has also ushered in an era of increasingly intense extraterrestrial traffic.
However, concerns arise regarding the number of satellites in low Earth orbit, particularly between 400 and 700 kilometers. Elon Musk’s Starlink network now boasts nearly 5,000 satellites. In 2023 alone, SpaceX launched 1,200 tons of payloads, three times the mass of the International Space Station. This underscores the need for establishing appropriate regulations, given the absence of a framework for this new space activity, despite the risks, including economic ones, and the precision required for space operations.
Starlink and Institutional Missions
Of the 98 launches, 63 were dedicated to Starlink. However, SpaceX’s order book remains robust, with contracts from the US Defense, launching military satellites (Space Development Agency, US Space Force). Three Crew Dragon missions transported crews to the International Space Station, and three cargo missions delivered supplies to astronauts in orbit, all part of billion-dollar contracts with NASA. Even excluding Starlink and US institutional missions from the annual count, the gap with other competitors remains substantial.
Private and International Missions
In May, Axiom Space’s private mission launched with a Falcon 9 headed to the ISS, and in July, a SpaceX rocket propelled the Euclid space telescope, the European Space Agency’s primary scientific mission for 2023. The choice continues in 2024 with SpaceX launching four Galileo satellites for the European Union’s flagship program and missions like Hera for planetary defense and EarthCare satellite in May.
SpaceX has executed various rideshare missions, transporting dozens of micro and nanosatellites from different companies. It has transported communication and Earth observation equipment for German and Arab entities and completed three missions for a rival satellite constellation, OneWeb. SpaceX also collaborates with major companies like Inmarsat, Intelsat, Viasat, among others.
Financial Performance and Starship Development
In the first quarter of 2023, SpaceX recorded its first profit, a modest $55 million, after two years of losses. The Wall Street Journal reported in August, based on public data, that revenues doubled from 2021 to 2022 after the introduction of Starlink, confirming SpaceX’s long-term goal of becoming a service and application provider. This progression occurs as Starship’s development continues, promising another revolution in space transportation systems.
The Veteran and the Spaceship
One cannot ignore the videos that flooded social media on April 20, depicting the shuttle intended to return humanity to the Moon exploding four minutes after liftoff. After months of investigation by the Federal Aviation Administration into damages from the first fiery launch, another ascent took place in November, resulting in the desired separation of the two stages. However, the second test concluded with an explosion before reaching the suborbital trajectory that would have led Starship into the waters near Hawaii.
At SpaceX’s private launch base in Boca Chica, where Starship tests are conducted, new versions are already prepared. In the upcoming weeks, we can anticipate additional launches and, potentially, more dramatic moments following the pattern of “launch, fail, learn, relaunch.” Time is of the essence, as SpaceX must deliver the lunar vehicle to NASA and introduce a new, colossal space courier to transport previously unimaginable payloads – a spacecraft that will also serve as a cruise ship for lunar and beyond tours.
Aside from Starship, if one were to find a flaw in SpaceX’s remarkable year, it would be the “lamented” B1058 booster. Departing on December 23 with a payload of Starlink satellites, it returned precisely to the autonomous spaceport drone ship named “Just Read the Instructions,” which awaited it in the Atlantic waters. Unfortunately, rough seas and strong winds led to its overturning and destruction.
Paradoxically, what marked the fate of that booster was a symbol of its success. It lacked “updated” legs capable of balancing the rocket under any conditions. B1058 was a veteran, a vehicle that had made history. It first ignited on May 20, 2020, to transport the first crew to the International Space Station by SpaceX. On that day, the United States regained the autonomous capability to transport its astronauts into orbit, nine years after the end of the Space Shuttle program. Since then, B1058 had flown 19 times, marking the final record of 2023.