Rocket Lab: Following in SpaceX’s Footsteps

The American company is renowned for the reliability of its Electron rockets, but its end-to-end operations have expanded to satellite manufacturing. It is also awaiting the debut of the reusable Neutron launcher.

BY EMILIO COZZI

There is one statistic that captures Rocket Lab’s role in the private space sector better than any other: since 2018, its Electron rocket has flown over fifty times, with a success rate exceeding 90 percent. No other commercial operator, excluding SpaceX, can boast such continuity.

Apart from Chinese launchers, which are a direct expression of the state sector, Peter Beck and his company aim to become a go-to option for those who do not want to depend on Elon Musk. In just over a decade, the American Rocket Lab has gone from building experimental rockets in New Zealand to establishing itself as the world’s second-largest player, with ambitions that closely follow in the footsteps of the South African-born space billionaire’s company.

“Payload Space,” an authoritative publication analyzing the dynamics and key players of the space economy, has produced a report on a company that is no longer considered “emerging.” With a portfolio ranging from microcomponents to complete satellites, Rocket Lab has built a reputation for reliability that has earned the trust of Nasa, the Department of Defense, and private operators. Yet it remains an unprofitable company, dependent on the success of a new rocket that has yet to make its debut.

Not just rockets
So far, Electron has been the calling card, but Rocket Lab is much more; it has chosen not to remain confined to the role of a launch provider. Over the years, it has built an integrated industrial infrastructure, becoming an “end-to-end space company.” Since 2020, with the acquisition of Sinclair Interplanetary, it has expanded its scope to satellite platforms and high-reliability components, up to the purchase of SolAero, a supplier of space solar cells to the US Space Force, for OneWeb satellites, for the Cygnus cargo capsules servicing the International Space Station, and even for the James Webb Telescope.
Today, its 2,000 employees work not only on rockets and propulsion but also on avionics, mission software, separation systems, and entire satellites. More than 1,700 objects in orbit carry Rocket Lab technologies, and clients include NASA, the Department of Defense, the Space Development Agency, and major commercial operators. This is not a minor detail: it means the company does not depend entirely on launch frequency but has built a diversified portfolio capable of generating revenue through long-term contracts for hardware and complex missions.

Beyond Electron. Neutron will be reusable
Yet Electron alone is not enough to ensure long-term sustainability. To achieve a step change in scale, a launch vehicle capable of competing with Falcon 9 for institutional contracts and next-generation constellations is needed. Neutron, standing 43 meters tall with a payload capacity of up to 13 tons to low Earth orbit in a reusable configuration, is designed to fly multiple times (up to 20), land on offshore barges, and reduce marginal costs.

It is built from carbon fiber, and its fairing, “Hungry Hippo,” is a distinctive feature: instead of being jettisoned, it opens and closes, allowing the second stage with its payload to exit, then returns to the ground along with the first stage, eliminating the need for separate recoveries. The nine Archimedes engines, powered by liquid methane and oxygen, are already in the testing phase. The announced launch price ranges between $50 and $55 million, or roughly $4,000 per kilogram, in line with reusable Falcon 9 pricing and significantly lower than the $70 million for the expendable version.

Rocket Lab aims to debut Neutron by 2025, fly it three times the following year, and five times in 2027. It is an ambitious roadmap, subject to delays as is typical for any new system, but the potential is enormous. Neutron would open the Defense market for the company, thanks to its recent inclusion in Nasa’s Vadr program (contracts for launching scientific payloads) and the opportunity to compete for National Security Space Launch contracts.

Rockets and Constellations
Thanks to Neutron, Rocket Lab could replicate the SpaceX model, integrating launches and orbital infrastructure. Indeed, an operational Neutron would not only secure external contracts but also enable the deployment of a proprietary constellation, designed and built in-house, generating recurring revenue with margins far higher than those from launches alone, particularly if focused on the communications sector, the analysis suggests.

The financial report produced by Payload Space clearly illustrates this dynamic. Rocket Lab closed 2024 with roughly 100 million dollars in quarterly revenue, up from 40 to 70 million in the previous two years. Seventy-three percent of revenue comes from the Space Systems segment, a sign that the diversification strategy is working.

Profitability, however, remains elusive. Over the past two years, the company posted recurring losses of between 40 and 50 million dollars per quarter, burning through 200 million annually in 2022 and 2023. The key, once again, is Neutron. The launch vehicle is seen as the catalyst for reaching cash flow break-even within the first year of commercial operations.

On the industrial front, Rocket Lab has demonstrated remarkable efficiency. Electron reached orbit with an investment of roughly 100 million dollars, in line with SpaceX’s Falcon 1, and Neutron is expected to require just 300 million in development in an expendable configuration. This is a negligible amount compared to the five to seven billion spent by United Launch Alliance for Vulcan, or the costs and timelines of Ariane 6.

This frugality comes from a hardware-rich approach and rapid iteration, a method borrowed from SpaceX but applied rigorously in a publicly traded company, which requires Ceo or Cfo approval for any expenditure over 30 thousand dollars. This discipline has avoided speculative drift, but it does not eliminate inherent risk. Until Neutron proves its reliability, starting with its first flight expected by the end of 2025, Rocket Lab will remain a loss-making company.

The market capitalization at the end of 2024 was around 13.6 billion dollars. The gap with SpaceX is obviously vast, but it also represents an opportunity. In a sector where many operators, from Astra to Virgin Orbit, have struggled to survive, Rocket Lab has positioned itself as a credible alternative, with a pipeline of contracts estimated at over 720 million dollars and a solid reputation. If Neutron stays on schedule and the company succeeds in deploying a proprietary constellation, it could really aim high.