Bezos aims for the Moon: Competition with Musk heats up

Amazon’s founder is set to launch his first lunar mission with a cargo vehicle, using the new New Glenn rocket. Meanwhile, his rival’s Starship fails multiple tests for the third time in a row.

BY EMILIO COZZI

Jeff Bezos has announced that he has the means to reach the Moon. Elon Musk, at this moment, does not.
Blue Origin, the space company founded by the Amazon mogul two years before SpaceX was born, has confirmed that it will attempt to land on our natural satellite by the end of 2025. It has a launch vehicle, and the lander for touchdown is nearly ready.

In SpaceX’s case, the launcher and lander are a single system: Starship. The latest test, just last week, ended in what the company calls a “rapid unscheduled disassembly” its third in a row.

To be clear, the race to the Moon is a league of its own. SpaceX leads in every other arena, especially when weighing cost effectiveness and reliability. Elon Musk has done more than anyone else in the field of space activities an undeniable fact even for his one time ally Donald Trump. Musk has envisioned, built, and successfully operated things once considered unrealistic or outright crazy.

The Moon, however, is a different matter though it’s not out of the question that SpaceX could surge ahead with a couple of flawless tests in the coming months. At stake are the fulfillment of Nasa contracts for the Artemis program and the glory of returning humanity to the lunar surface.

Still, while just a few months ago it seemed like Musk’s company had already written the ending to this story, today some doubts are beginning to emerge.

Blue Origin’s Breakthrough

In January, from Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral, Blue Origin’s “heavy” rocket, the New Glenn, lifted off for the first time. Named in honor of the first American astronaut in orbit, the launch vehicle is capable of delivering up to 45 tons into low Earth orbit and successfully completed its mission without major issues. Only the booster, the first stage of the rocket, failed to return as planned. This is not a minor detail, as the design envisions it being reusable, much like SpaceX’s Falcon 9 boosters. Still, it’s only a snag in an otherwise successful story.

New Glenn correctly deployed its payload in orbit: an experimental satellite called Blue Ring, a prototype for future satellite relocation and servicing missions.

Just a few weeks ago, Blue Origin confirmed what had been expected since the beginning of the year debut: it will attempt a leap to the Moon with one of its vehicles, the Blue Moon Mark 1. This prototype cargo lander is designed to transport equipment, supplies, and propellants to support the logistics and resupply efforts of Nasa’s Artemis lunar exploration program. The Mark 1 can deliver and deploy up to three tons on the lunar surface, and it will, of course, launch aboard the New Glenn.

If it succeeds, it will be hard not to talk about a “lead change” in the Western, entirely private as of now, race to the Moon.

SpaceX or Blue Moon?

When it came time to choose the vehicle that would deliver the next astronauts to the lunar surface the Human Landing System Nasa launched a competition. It was won in 2021 by SpaceX with its Starship spacecraft. Blue Origin filed an appeal and two years later Nasa selected Blue Moon the version for human transport now called Mark 2 as the second lander in the Artemis program. Could it become the first choice?

The question and reflection are unavoidable especially after the latest Starship test. While caution is needed before labeling any test a failure particularly with such a complex launch system for three consecutive times the updated versions of the Ship Block 2 or V2 have failed to approach the targeted controlled splashdown point and have not enabled the planned test procedures to be carried out including the crucial study of the thermal shield’s behavior. After the May 27 launch the booster was lost during the return phase to Earth. “The Starship’s payload bay door failed to open preventing the release of the eight Starlink satellite simulators. A subsequent attitude control error prevented the Raptor engines from reigniting and the Starship from orienting itself into the correct reentry position” the company wrote.

In other words there are still many issues to resolve. Could it be that SpaceX itself ends up slowing down the race to the Moon as has been suggested for months now?

Tests tests and more tests

SpaceX’s goal is to carry out as many as 25 flight tests in 2025 the number authorized by the Federal Aviation Administration. As of June only three have been completed and every time the declared objectives are not met especially during Starship’s launch and flight phases the Faa must start an investigation and issue new permits. Despite all this Artemis 2 has even been moved up to February 2026. However that mission will not use Starship but rather the Space Launch System and the Orion capsule a system that will be retired after just the third mission which will be the first human landing since 1972. The reasoning seems almost obvious we have a rocket and a capsule old design but less experimental than the new one that can fly. Let’s use them to at least send a crew around the Moon.

What comes next is currently shrouded in uncertainty. In 2024 Nasa postponed Artemis 3 again to 2027 two years from now during which SpaceX will have to prove it has a reliable vehicle complete refueling tests in orbit both architectures require multiple launches to refuel and carry out at least one uncrewed lunar landing and above all one without glitches. These milestones seem still far away for Elon Musk today.

It is true that SpaceX’s iterative approach launch fail learn launch again can hold surprises potentially skipping many steps in one leap toward the goal. A big leap is needed like the one Blue Origin is about to make with fewer unexpected twists. Blue Origin will also have to put its refueling and landing systems to the test of course. But if in a few months Bezos reaches the Moon before Musk the head to head will become thrilling.