Look up! The Apophis Asteroid and the call to join forces. A unique opportunity

Scientists are urging a global effort to study the celestial body that will pass close to Earth in 2029. Planetary defense is the primary concern, but the event will also be spectacular, even “pop.”

BY EMILIO COZZI AND MATTEO MARINI

Something extraordinary is approaching, and quite rapidly: at about six kilometers per second.
Its name is Apophis, the asteroid that made the world tremble in 2004 because it seemed it might hit Earth. Initial calculations pointed to April 13, 2029, as the date of the feared impact.
Subsequent observations confirmed that no, there is no risk of Apophis colliding with our planet, at least not within the next century. However, that April 13 remains a significant date because, although it will not crash into us, the asteroid will pass close by, incredibly close. It will be a major event, scientific, technological, and certainly marked by strong public interest.

Apophis has a diameter of 375 meters, not enough to wipe us out, but large enough to destroy a city and cause significant damage and casualties within a local radius. It will pass just 32,000 kilometers from Earth. To put that into perspective, that is even closer than geostationary satellites at 36,000 kilometers, the ones that carry the television broadcasts we receive via the satellite dishes on our rooftops.

Given the growing awareness of space-related issues, it will be studied thoroughly. Not only because it is a “fossil” of the Solar System, likely carrying clues about the formation of our cosmic neighborhood, but especially because observing it will provide crucial data for planetary defense. We will gain a better understanding of what we are made of and how to act to protect ourselves from a potential threat coming from deep space.

At least three missions are already planned: one American, one Japanese, and one European.

Rendezvous with the space rock

The American mission, Osiris-Apex, is actually an extension of a mission that has already been launched and has already yielded results. Osiris-Rex has been out there since 2016, encountered the asteroid Bennu, collected samples with a spectacular touch-and-go maneuver, and sent them back to Earth, successfully delivering them in September 2023. Renamed Osiris-Apex (Apophis Explorer), it is now heading toward Apophis to study its physical changes after the close encounter with Earth.

The European mission is called Ramses (Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety) and is led by the European Space Agency. “By analyzing the size and orbits of all known asteroids, astronomers believe that one this large comes this close to Earth only once every 5,000 to 10,000 years,” ESA writes on its website. In other words, it is a unique opportunity. And as of now, Ramses is also the only mission that was specifically conceived and designed for this goal.
It will meet Apophis before its close flyby and will accompany it during the pass, to observe how the asteroid is deformed and altered by Earth’s gravity.

The deep space exploration technology demonstrator Destiny is the mission of the Japanese space agency JAXA, headed toward the asteroid Phaethon. It was originally scheduled to launch this year, but delays in the development of the chosen launch vehicle have pushed the departure to 2028. This timing will place it in the vicinity of Apophis before its approach to Earth. As the scientists involved in the project explain, encountering Apophis in advance will allow for valuable observations of its condition before the Earth flyby, enabling comparisons with subsequent measurements.

The scientists’ appeal

On April 9 and 10, a group of researchers gathered at the University of Tokyo for an international workshop, marking the fourth anniversary of Apophis’s rendezvous with our planet. There, they issued a heartfelt appeal: that April 13, 2029, should become a historic day. Nasa and the entire international scientific community must not miss the chance to visit and “interrogate” Apophis!

“No single telescopic or space investigation alone can encompass all the measurements needed to fully seize the knowledge opportunity presented by Apophis in April 2029. Therefore, we believe international collaboration and coordination are essential,” the scientists wrote. “Planetary defense is a shared international responsibility. We are committed to supporting, encouraging, celebrating, and engaging in collaborative and coordinated efforts to carry out a thorough scientific investigation of Apophis’s safe passage in 2029 through telescopic observations and in situ measurements using space probes before, during, and after Earth flyby. We pledge to share the results of our scientific investigations of Apophis openly with the world.”

Nasa mission on hold

While highlighting the crucial importance of the missions led by the three space agencies, the experts, including members of the committee that released and signed the statement, such as scholars from American and Japanese universities, Nasa, the French Cnrs, and Italy’s Monica Lazzarin from the University of Padua, are urging Nasa to revive a mission that was shelved in 2023.
The mission is Janus, consisting of two twin satellites named after the Roman god with two faces. It was originally planned to launch with the Psyche mission, headed for the asteroid of the same name. The small satellites were meant to detach and travel to two other celestial bodies. But delays in the main mission made it impossible, due to orbital mechanics, to reach their targets.

The two Janus probes, completed and ready for launch, were archived awaiting the right opportunity. That opportunity, the scientists argue, has now arrived. Send them to Apophis, they say, and more than that: “We encourage support for opportunities involving cubesats and smallsats to validate new technologies that can advance the science of planetary defense while also creating new chances for students to gain experience in this field.”
The appeal carries a sense of urgency. Space is offering more and more opportunities, but we must act quickly.

Ideas Needed for a Historic Event

Let’s imagine the world from now through the next four years, and the new possibilities offered by the space industry. With a dose of optimism, we can hope that the opportunities to develop low-cost spacecraft and launch them quickly will become even more accessible as the future unfolds before us. Never before has access to space been so affordable and technologically within reach.

What’s truly thrilling is that there’s no need to travel to the edge of the Solar System or to the far side of the Sun. Apophis will be right here, even visible to the naked eye at night.
In October 2024, the European probe Hera launched toward the asteroid Didymos, the one struck by a Nasa mission, to study the effects of that impact. Hera’s journey will take years and cover hundreds of millions of kilometers in pursuit of its target. Compared to that, Apophis presents a rare and unmissable opportunity. Space agencies, universities, and research centers will be able to develop missions and instruments using off the shelf technology, widely available commercial hardware, rather than bespoke systems built from scratch, as has been the case for most space gear until now, to study what was once a threat and has now become an event, an attraction.

One can bet that Apophis will become a pop phenomenon, much like Halley’s Comet once was. It might even spark commercial ideas: space companies may venture out to orbit or land on it, to explore what it’s made of and whether it holds anything of value, or to test early technologies for potentially profitable business ventures on more resource rich celestial bodies. Or, why not, it could be a marketing opportunity for beverage makers, washing machine manufacturers, or car companies wanting to take their brand where no one has gone before, and where no one will go again.
Ingenuity and creativity are limited only by imagination.