Europe: Launch, Launch, Launch!

The Old Continent must do its best to reach space autonomously, frequently, and by diversifying its offerings. The price of failure: marginalization.

BY EMILIO COZZI

It is never too late when it comes to innovation.
However, things become more challenging when rapidly developing technology is a crucial geopolitical factor.

It has often been written on these pages how important it is to have access to space. But also how, today, merely having the capability to reach beyond the atmosphere is no longer enough.

In the current scenario, two factors must be considered: the frequency with which a state can launch its space devices (mainly satellites into orbit) and the speed at which a launch vehicle is available.

Although Europe has lost its top rankings in this competition, it is aiming high thanks to a pool of startups ready to compete. And, perhaps, with new investments: in the €800 billion announced by European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen for defense, there must certainly be a chapter dedicated to space.

“Geopolitical instability is a constant driver of defense investments by nations,” said Thales Ceo Patrice Caine to journalists following Von Der Leyen’s announcement. It was just hours after a stock market surge for the company he leads (+15%), along with other defense-related stocks: Leonardo (+15% on the Milan Stock Exchange) reached €45.5 per share; the UK’s Bae Systems saw a 17% increase; Germany’s Rheinmetall rose by 14.4%; and Dassault Aviation by 16.7%.

At the latest European Space Conference in Brussels, an event that brought together institutions (the European Union, the European Commission, Esa, Euspa, and the European Defence Agency) and the most prominent industry players, Europe’s leading companies developing “light” launch vehicles presented their projects: Isar Aerospace, Rocket Factory Augsburg, HyImpulse, PLD Space, Maiaspace, and Latitude. The goal is to establish “innovative European launch services” to “provide competitive and reliable options for institutional and commercial customers.” In order: three German companies, one Spanish, and two French. Add to that the British Orbex.

Italy was missing from this lineup. It was present, of course, with Avio, a medium light launcher manufacturer, but without introducing new prospects to compete with those of other European countries.

The conference also discussed European leadership through flagship programs like Copernicus’ Sentinel satellites for Earth observation, Galileo for positioning services, and Iris2. But with billions in investments on the horizon, ambition cannot stop there.

Perhaps the most striking example is Euclid, which launched from Cape Canaveral in July 2023. “We signed the contract [to launch the Esa space telescope with a SpaceX Falcon 9, ed.] on January 31, 2023, five months before the launch,” recalled Mike Healy, head of scientific projects at the European Space Agency. “Our first informal contact with the company dated back to May 2022. We completed the process in just over a year; in Europe, it would have taken two or three.”

At the time, the industry was still in the shadow of what is known as the European launcher crisis. Vega C was grounded after the failure of its second launch, and Ariane 6 had yet to make its debut. As a result, Esa turned to SpaceX to launch one of its most ambitious telescopes, which is now investigating the “shape” of the cosmos to gather data on dark energy and dark matter.

Is the problem solved now that Ariane 6 and Vega C are operational? Not entirely. And perhaps no one ever thought it would be. The two rockets made in Europe are part of an evolution that has, at least in theory, significantly reduced the natural turnaround time between launches. This applies both to hardware availability (engines, tanks, stages) and to infrastructure readiness, specifically the European spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana, which has undergone extensive upgrades to minimize the time between launches.

Once again, though, there is no guarantee that this will be enough.

Just as Europe cannot rely solely on a single spaceport, despite its advantageous location being the closest to the Equator and allowing for maximum use of Earth’s rotational energy, it remains, after all, on the other side of the Atlantic. And rockets are built in continental Europe, only to be shipped by sea to Kourou.

This is why it is worth noting that several new spaceports are about to open on the European mainland. These are at high latitudes, which are ideal for launching into polar orbits rather than medium inclination or geostationary orbits, for which sites closer to the Equator are preferable. Polar orbits are the most commonly used for Earth observation and communications. In particular, Andøya in Norway, Kiruna in Sweden, and Sutherland in Scotland stand out as vertical launch sites.

There is another piece to this puzzle: what must be built in orbit. It is now clear that to keep up with the race led by the United States and China, especially in the competition to develop their own networks for telecommunications and Earth observation, action must be taken quickly. Iris2, the European constellation that will connect governments, embassies, armed forces, and public institutions, will be ready perhaps by 2030. The United States already possesses the largest and most advanced constellation, Starlink, while China is building its own. OneWeb is currently the only alternative, and in fact, following the announcement of upcoming European defense investments, Eutelsat has even doubled its stock market value. However, OneWeb has fewer than one tenth of Elon Musk’s satellites and operates at a greater distance from Earth.

It is likely that in the near future, a constellation of small satellites, micro or nano, will need to be built and launched to close this gap. To achieve this, many launch vehicles will need to be readily available, because according to Esa estimates, Ariane 6 will be capable of launching between nine and eleven times per year when fully operational. Vega C is expected to reach space every two months. That adds up to fewer than twenty missions per year. SpaceX alone reached that number in just a month and a half, from early January to February 10 of this year.

Yet whether or not a true European alternative to SpaceX is developed, the future belongs to those who can carry out more than eighteen space launches in twelve months and, at the same time, have a significant payload to launch.

In this sector, Italy can make its mark with the expertise of major companies such as Thales Alenia Space, Ohb Italia, and Sitael, as well as smaller players like Picosats, Astradyne, and Apogeo Space.