Record launches in 2025, as SpaceX prepares a “heavy” turning point

In the year just concluded, a new all-time high was reached, once again driven by Starlink launches. 2026 will mark further growth. Then, once again, Elon Musk’s company could change everything.

BY EMILIO COZZI & MATTEO MARINI

It was another record year for space activities.
Although the news no longer makes much noise, according to the ever meticulous analysis by Jonathan McDowell, worldwide in 2025 there were 329 orbital launch attempts. The count therefore does not include suborbital launches, but it does include the five Starship tests carried out by SpaceX.
The total marks an increase of 25 percent compared to 2024, which itself had recorded growth of 17 percent over the previous year. Since 2020, the number of launches to Earth orbit has been steadily increasing. Compared with 2019, they have actually tripled, driven unsurprisingly by SpaceX’s activities and the Chinese push. The real novelty is that the trend could reverse, though not from 2026 but in the 12 months that follow.

The numbers of a year

In 2025 SpaceX carried out 170 launches, 165 with Falcon 9 and five with Starship, more than the rest of the world combined. In 2019 the launches operated by Elon Musk’s company had been 26, one every two weeks; now the Merlin engines ignite almost every two days.
This contribution allows the United States to lead the ranking of launches by country, with 181, rising to 198 if one also counts the 17 launches by Rocket Lab, a US adopted company, from its native New Zealand. China follows with 92, using as many as 25 different rockets, then Russia with 17 and Europe with 8, consisting of four Ariane 6 liftoffs, three Vega C flights and one launch of Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum from the Andøya spaceport. Together, the United States and China accounted for 88 percent of all orbital launches worldwide.

As mentioned, the trend is set to slow down and perhaps to reverse. Not in terms of the amount of mass launched, but in the number of liftoffs.
Despite the slowdown in its development, it is in fact on Starship that SpaceX intends to focus. This was anticipated in July by Stephanie Bednarek, SpaceX vice president of commercial sales, during a session at the Spacetide conference in Tokyo. “I expect this year and next to be the ones with the highest number of Falcon launches.” After that, the company will begin shifting launches to Starship. With an exhortation: “We encourage everyone who works on satellite design to change the way they think about launch,” she said. “It is no longer necessary to optimize mass and volume.”
In other words, Starship will be powerful and inexpensive, and launch costs will be so low as to make current constraints insignificant, such as building smallsats to save costs.

Toward the turning point imposed by Musk

The generous progression that is multiplying Starlink satellites to feed the orbital communications megaconstellation will certainly not stop. The goal is to bring their number to 42,000, currently about 9,400 active units, a task that will be handled precisely by Starship. Not in 2026, because the spacecraft conceived with the ultimate goal of colonizing Mars is not yet ready. However, if the next tests are successful, it is conceivable that from 2027 Starship will replace Falcon 9 to deploy the next generation of Starlink satellites into orbit. The target follows a strict logic, because these latest ones, the V3s, are much larger and each has double the mass of the previous versions, around two tons. Starship will be able to carry more than 50 of them on each flight, ensuring the transition of the service from hundreds of megabits to gigabits per second.

In a post on X on December 10, Musk himself assured that the V3s will be launched “at scale” by the end of 2026. Whether this will happen immediately with Starship is hard to say and easy to doubt; it will depend on the progress the new launcher makes in the coming months. Nevertheless, it is clear that everything aligns with what Bednarek anticipated. Sooner or later a very powerful rocket will be used, capable of carrying more mass. The satellites will be heavier and more capable, so fewer of them will be needed. Considering that Starlink accounts for the vast majority of launches, the number of SpaceX liftoffs will decrease significantly. And it is safe to bet that the overwhelming dominance the company aims to consolidate thanks to Starship will once again impose a new logic on the market.

Light and reusable: China and Europe at the crossroads

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is playing in a “minor” league. Blue Origin has another heavy rocket available to place its Amazon Leo constellation, previously known as Project Kuiper, into orbit. China will continue to deploy its own orbital infrastructures and other communications megaconstellations. Space activity will be frenetic throughout 2026 and it is almost certain that launch pads will light up as never before in human history. Then, if SpaceX manages to complete its transformation, the pace could slow simply because it will be difficult for anyone else to keep up with Musk.

Beijing has meanwhile tested the first two launch vehicles with reusable technology. They reached orbit nominally, but the boosters failed to return to Earth, and new debuts are expected by the end of the year.
The same applies to the other powers, Russia excluded. India is on the rise, and Europe is benefiting from the renewed reliability of its launchers, with Ariane 6 and Vega C, which however do not offer the possibility of a very high launch cadence. The inaugural flights are awaited of at least five new very small launch vehicles made in Europe, capable of carrying featherweight payloads to low Earth orbit, on average up to about one ton or slightly more. They will have to guarantee dedicated launch opportunities on shorter timelines than institutional launchers and, being light and reusable rockets, at competitive costs.
Translated: they will have to do, but on a much smaller scale, what SpaceX has done so far.