Trump’s Space Agenda, Elon Musk, and Everything Else

A look at the policies that the new administration might implement, continuing approaches established during the first term while facing new challenges (like Mars). Europe’s concerns.

BY EMILIO COZZI

The Moon, Mars, Defense, and business: a lot is on the table, but what else might we expect from the next four space-focused years of Trump’s second administration?

To begin answering, it’s worth noting that in each of these horizons and objectives, the main (and sometimes sole) player is always the same: Elon Musk, Trump’s biggest supporter (he funded 10% of the election costs) and perhaps a future member of the Republican government. Musk is also the world’s richest man and has pioneered the most groundbreaking advancements beyond the Earth’s atmosphere over the past fifteen years. This scenario will inevitably have repercussions for Europe, allies, and rivals across the globe.

The Moon and Beyond

To briefly analyze the future of Trump’s outer space policy—making predictions in this field is seldom a wise choice—one should start with the four years of his presidency from 2016 to 2020.
This was a period that saw the launch of two significant initiatives in two very different domains: the Artemis program, which aimed to establish a stable human presence on the lunar surface, and the Artemis Accords, which set out common guidelines for lunar activities, both economic and commercial, underpinned by mutual respect and international collaboration.
Today, there’s no indication of a major strategy shift. Despite the crucial uncertainty of timing, the Moon remains the first goal. Whether it serves as a mandatory step toward Mars is more debatable, as we’ll explore further.
When the Artemis program was introduced in 2017, a human lunar landing was planned for 2024, theoretically within Trump’s second term. Now, the more likely target is February 2028, the final year of the newly elected president’s term. Even if delayed, achieving this goal won’t be easy.
Artemis 3, the mission slated to return a crew to the lunar surface, is still scheduled for 2026, though analysts—and even NASA—do not rule out further delays. However, with Trump in command and Musk at his side, an acceleration might not be out of the question. Under the Biden administration, NASA’s funding has consistently fallen short of the agency’s requests. One of the more recent cuts even led to the cancellation of the Viper lunar rover mission, despite the rover being built and assembled—a clear indication of tight budget constraints.
However, with Trump as the 47th president of the United States, now backed by a Republican majority in both the House and Senate, he may assert his will to achieve this goal and secure his place in space exploration history.

Musk and Mars

In April 2017, soon after his election, Donald Trump spoke with astronaut Peggy Whitson, who was then aboard the International Space Station, about his desire to send Americans to Mars “during my first, or at the latest, my second term.” It was hard to tell if he was joking or simply unaware that even a lunar landing wouldn’t be feasible in such a timeframe. At that time, SpaceX had not yet begun building Starship.
Today, things are different, and the Moon and Mars aren’t necessarily on the same trajectory. Just last September, Elon Musk reiterated his ultimate dream, again publicly discussing the first human landing on the Red Planet: “The first spacecraft,” he said, “will launch in two years, during the next Earth-Mars transfer window. They will be uncrewed missions to test safe landing protocols. If all goes well, the first human flights to Mars could happen in four years.” Once again, the target year is 2028.
The first question isn’t whether he’ll make it but whether he’ll even attempt it. And the answer is: why not? Once Starship is proven, nothing will stop SpaceX from trying. And while Musk’s deadlines have often been laughably optimistic, at least in the realm of space, he hasn’t missed many targets.
Regarding the Starship tests, it’s worth noting SpaceX’s increasingly vocal criticisms of the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) slow approval process. Musk’s possible inclusion in the upcoming Trump administration, with a role dedicated to streamlining public administration processes (referred to as “Doge”), would undoubtedly fuel debate over potential conflicts of interest, given Musk’s extensive business dealings.
In sum, we can expect accelerated testing and validation of the massive launch system, which could, once ready for the Moon, also serve to reach Mars. Notably, these are achievable objectives for SpaceX even without NASA collaboration; the company could chart extraterrestrial routes for private strategies or third-party clients.
Of course, reaching Mars with a crew would be a different story, as the missions Musk describes would be one-way journeys with significant risks—still speculative, but highlighting an unprecedented pairing in the history of space exploration. With the public’s backing and a White House that is amenable, Musk’s ambitions could receive a powerful boost.
Many analysts, in the hours following election day, noted that Trump now has more control over the party than he did eight years ago, when he still faced resistance from parts of the Republican establishment. With full congressional support, he can pursue his objectives directly. If his goals align with those from his first term (which the Biden administration largely upheld, with some notable exceptions), the path ahead is clear—for both space exploration and the space economy.

SpaceX, Defense, and Space Wealth

Trump signed the directive establishing the Space Force in 2019, the sixth branch of the U.S. armed forces, as NATO declared space an “operational domain.” Investment in space-related assets and technology is almost certain to continue, providing readiness for potential conflicts beyond Earth’s atmosphere. Space will become militarized. SpaceX’s technological capabilities, coupled with Musk’s close ties to the president, will be available, likely as the first choice.
It’s evident that this is far more complex than it seems; the U.S. is vast, with hundreds of established space companies. Politically, it would be unfeasible to ignore these players.
However, it is likely that the entire sector will benefit from renewed momentum. Defense contracts for SpaceX, already the Pentagon’s primary launch provider, and the Starshield satellite constellation are set to grow. With Musk as Trump’s right-hand man—some have gone so far as to call him a “partner”—the real question is what opportunities will emerge for companies like Blue Origin or other providers. Notably, Jeff Bezos directed his Washington Post to abstain from the traditional pre-election endorsement. Currently, all other players lag behind SpaceX, including United Launch Alliance, a joint venture of Lockheed Martin and Boeing, which was reportedly considering a sale to Sierra Space in August, according to Reuters.
Significant decisions impacting the private space economy emerged during Trump’s first administration, including executive orders encouraging commercial companies to seek, extract, and utilize extraterrestrial resources. Whether on the Moon or asteroids, Executive Order 13914 clearly states that celestial bodies are not “global commons.” Extracting, bringing treasures to Earth, and commercializing them are possible for those with the means and capability. Notably, this approach was first introduced by Barack Obama, under whom SpaceX and private space services for the government flourished, and consolidated by Joe Biden.
In any case, the figure of Musk looms large over the entire sector. Access to space now seems predominantly in his hands. While not a monopoly, it is an overwhelming dominance that raises questions. We have yet to see if the investigation called for by NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, into Musk’s alleged ties with Vladimir Putin, will proceed. According to reports published in October by the Wall Street Journal, Musk has maintained personal communication with the Russian president. If confirmed, this would be a significant concern for the Pentagon, given Musk’s access to classified information due to his work with the Department of Defense.

MAGA in Space

In the most restrictive and pessimistic interpretation, “Make America Great Again” means prioritizing national interests and reducing all others to mere supporting roles. The tariff policies, already hinted at by Biden and promised by Trump, imply that foreign technologies will face greater challenges crossing the Atlantic, particularly impacting Europe—the continent most historically, economically, and culturally linked to the United States, but also one with declining centrality. From NATO to more ambitious space programs, it will be crucial to see what choices the White House makes, especially concerning high-cost programs like Artemis and Lunar Gateway, where European companies (including Italy’s Thales Alenia Space) play a prominent role.
Equally complex is predicting how the transition from the International Space Station—another significant expenditure of funds and resources—to commercial stations will unfold. Partially underway, this process will see its most important decisions over the next four years, including the plan for deorbiting the ISS into the Pacific. A crucial factor will be the direction of relations with China, which tariffs are likely to heavily influence.
Geopolitical competition could intensify beyond the atmosphere; for example, both American and Chinese interests on the Moon are targeting the same areas near the South Pole. For this reason, it is likely that the alliance with India, counterbalancing China, will continue. With the end of collaboration on the International Space Station, there is also a legitimate concern that MAGA could at least partially disrupt the framework of peaceful cooperation in orbit and beyond.

The Challenge for Europe and the World

At this point, Europe—prompted by leaders like Draghi and Macron—faces a choice: confront the challenge openly and assert greater autonomy by developing its own programs and capabilities (for example, access to space for European astronauts), or align with U.S. interests, at the risk of waiting (and losing) another four years.
While this text does not aim to provide an answer, it’s important to remember that the European Space Agency (ESA) still relies on NASA’s contribution to launch the ExoMars rover, which was grounded following the invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent halt in collaboration with Russia.
A new agreement has already been signed this year, but funding remains in the hands of the U.S. Congress. The Mars Sample Return mission, another ambitious but underfunded project, faces similar challenges. Both missions aim to search for signs of past or present life on Mars, a pursuit of knowledge that the Republican administration has shown less interest in compared to commercial space endeavors.
This is also true for climate change mitigation and research: a significant portion of Trump’s political base and establishment remains skeptical about the severity of climate issues and their link to human activity. During Trump’s first term, agencies like NASA, NOAA (oceans and atmosphere), and the EPA (environment) faced substantial budget cuts to missions and projects monitoring climate change. The new president’s statement that rising sea levels due to global warming would mean “more properties with ocean views” offers little reassurance for future environmental initiatives.